Throughout history, mankind has had to make tough decisions. Good vs. Evil. Civilization vs. Anarchy. Betamax vs. VHS. DVD vs. Laserdisc. Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD.

Well, now you can cross off that last one.

The much-hyped ‘format wars’ between DVD manufacturers are finally over, at least for the time being, since Toshiba announced formally on Tuesday it will no longer ‘develop, manufacture and market HD-DVD players and recorders,’ according to a Toshiba press release. Production and cessation of the HD format, which had high picture quality and all of its paraphernalia, should happen around March.

HD-DVD and Blu-Ray were direct competitors to be the next mainstream delivery medium, specifically for High Definition (HD) content in disc form, until Toshiba announced the discontinuation of its HD-DVD format. Sony is the main proponent of Blu-Ray technology and had a hand in its development.

A widespread industry belief was Blu-Ray already had the upper-hand, because of Sony’s implementation of it in PlayStation 3. A more likely factor is last Friday, Wal-Mart stores abandoned the HD-DVD format and pledged to only stock Blu-Ray discs.

Three days later, HD-DVD was no more.

So, as often happens with big tech news, blogs, social and technology news Web sites were all a flurry, declaring Blu-Ray had won the format war, that Toshiba had given in. Sony was victorious.

I don’t see the point of the celebration.

For the next couple years or so, we’ll all be happy using Blu-Ray, paying more money for new Blu-Ray players and enjoying the 700 hours of extra HD footage that can be crammed on to each disc.

But does it really matter?

My prediction for the coming years is quite different from what hardware manufacturers like Sony and Toshiba are probably hoping for, but I’d be willing to wager that it is more accurate.

Within the next 10 years we won’t even care about physical media. The online model for both streaming and downloadable content will be the business model for all major content distributors.

It’s only a matter of time before YouTube begins either an ad-supported or subscription-based service to offer streaming movies on its Web site. Legally.

As a result, companies will have to evolve. Netflix, for instance, makes a huge profit off its DVD renting and delivery service, but not as much off of the direct-download option. The same goes for Blockbuster’s similar service.

How will they change? Blockbuster will (hopefully) go out of business. Netflix will (hopefully) be bought by Apple.

While it may seem a far stretch that Apple would be interested in Netflix, it’s not if you examine the facts. Apple is trying to get a part of the online market with content delivery through iTunes, arguably the most successful online movie and music store. And while Apple has put forth a good effort, its foray into bringing that entertainment into the living room – the Apple TV – has been less successful.

While Apple isn’t one to absorb other companies, I think it’ll make an exception, or at least form an alliance with Netflix to deliver content through iTunes and onto Apple TVs, video iPods and iPhones.

As physical media die out in the future, concerns will move from the medium to the message. Content will once again decide who is on top of the industry, not just quality.

Quality will hit a plateau, as screen size and resolution can only improve so much before leveling off.

So, in my eyes, I think this may be the last ‘format war,’ so savor the victory while you can, Sony. Proprietary formats will let loose one last death-rattle in the coming years before being strangled to death by the freedom of digital-only media, and I will sing a glorious song to the gods as I dance on the gravestone of Blockbuster and let loose a torrent (pun intended) of cheap, accessible and high-quality content.

AJ Chavar can be reached at ajchavar@syr.edu, and despite being creepy he only kinda meant that last part.

Published on February 19, 2008 at 12:00 pm